Polling, Polling, Polling... - Granite Grok

Polling, Polling, Polling…

RCP Dec 22

Quinnipac has a new national poll out today in which the Trump lead has dwindled: Trump 28, Cruz 24, Rubio 12, Carson 10, with Christie at 6, Paul and Fiorina  at 2, and Kasich, Huckabee, and Santorum at 1.

The national average of all RCP polls shows Trump at 33 and Cruz at 18. Rubio is already declining from his peak last week, down two points to 12. Carson is at 10, Bush at 4.5, Christie at 3.5, with Paul and Fiorina tied at 2.4. Kasich is at 2.1 and the rest are under 1%.

Sunday Polling had Cruz +9 in Iowa and Trump +18 in New Hampshire.

It is Trump then Cruz in Florida and South Carolina as well with Rubio a slightly stronger third in his home state.

Here’s a little RCP Averages retrospective. Mid to late June of 2015 – Bush, Walker, Carson, Rubio, Huckabee, Paul, Trump. Cruz, Perry,….Everyone is close early on but Bush is polling the best in every poll.

RCP-average-2016-june presidential-polls

 

Next up, late July to Early August: Trump, Bush, Walker, Huckabee, Carson, Cruz, Rubio, Paul, …Trump explodes into the lead in July with a wide margin.RCP2 7-29 to 8-2 2015

 

October – Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Fiorina, Huckabee, Paul, …Carson creeps up in the national polls.

RCP Poll avg 10-22-2015

 

Late Oct early November – Carson, Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Fiorina, Paul, Huckabee, …Carson overtakes Trump.

Polling-Data Late oct

 

Mid November – Trump, Rubio, Carson, Cruz, Kasich, Bush, Christie, Paul, … Carson starts to collapse.RCP.polls_.NH_.29NOV15
This week Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Bush, Christie, Paul, Fiorina. Trump breaks the thirties in his average national polling.

RCP Dec 22

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