IPCC Forecasting Procedure violated 81% of Relevant Forecasting Principles. - Granite Grok

IPCC Forecasting Procedure violated 81% of Relevant Forecasting Principles.

UN Climate Stooges

“”Scientific forecasting knowledge has been summarized in the form of principles by 40 leading forecasting researchers and 132 expert reviewers. The principles summarize the evidence on forecasting from 545 studies that in turn drew on many prior studies. Some of the forecasting principles, such as ‘provide full disclosure,’ are common to all scientific fields. The principles are readily available in the Principles of Forecastinghandbook.

We used that knowledge to assess whether the procedures described in the ‘Climate Models and their Evaluation’ chapter of the 2007 IPCC Assessment report amounted to scientific forecasting. To do so, we first examined the IPCC chapter’s references to determine whether the authors relied on validated forecasting procedures. We found no references to validation. We then sent emails to all the authors of that section for whom we were able to obtain email addresses, asking for references for credible forecasts of global average temperatures and the methods used to derive them. The few useful responses we received referred us to the ‘Climate Models and Their Evaluation’ chapter or to works that were cited in it.

We then audited the IPCC forecasting Audit Software available on ForPrin.com. Our audit found that the IPCC followed only 17 of 89 relevant principles that we were able to code using the information provided in the 74 page IPCC chapter.  Thus, the IPCC forecasting procedure violated 81 percent of relevant forecasting principles.””

 

Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong – from Climate Change The Facts.

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