Some people do a lot of analytical work on figuring out their prognostication of past voting models and results, changes in demographics, and how to use that info to determine how that all should be altered for the current elections’ results. I find it intriguing but I’m not going to spend my time doing it as it would take away from blogging. So, I sift through others’ hard work (and it is indeed exactly that) and try to synthesize my own outlook.
- I called it on Walt Havenstein losing the NH Governor race – he did by 5.2%. I was wrong in that I thought it would be closer to 7-10%.
- I called it on Scott Brown losing the US Senate race – he did by 3.2%. I was wrong in that I thought that IF he won, it would be by the slimest of margins (e.g., recount) and if he lost, it would have been been about a 5 – 7% margin.
John Stark and John Langdon – the number of “scatters” that the NH SecState is showing is inline with what I thought – and also within the margins of the above loses as well. Message sent – and done as a lark. Lots of folks hammered us for it but I still hold fast to changing the voting paradigm: no longer will I allow an Establishment Republican Party Elite demand obedience and attempt to strong arm a vote simply BECAUSE. No, you must earn it from the start of the Primary right up through me marking the final ballot. My vote is too precious to casually throw the GOP way to lie about supporting a candidate who insults the L&F wing of the NH GOP Party. Neither am I going to support candidates that violate core beliefs. Consistency breeds Trust yields Votes. Neither Havenstein or Brown showed me (or a growing number of folks like me) that they were Consistent or that they had earned my Trust. Deal with it.
- What does it say about a man’s character that knowing the Democrat name for TEA Party folks was a sexual slur could not find it in his heart to simply say “sorry”? He deliberately alienated a large part of his base. I can now tell the story – a meeting was set up, like back in 2010 with the leaders of the L&F wing of the Party with Papa Smurf (John Sununu Sr), for Havenstein. Walt arrived – and only 4 people were there instead of the scores that had been invited. Each and every one of them, including me, said “No apology, no support. We will not be used as cover; we will not be there”. It is my understanding that Havenstein was PISSED – he was the Nominee so how DARE he not get that support and stomped out redfaced when told the reasons. He assumed that votes would be there – you know what “assumed” means. A lack of Consistency.
- I am quite sure, being part of that group, that Brown made no inroads with the gun groups / Second Amendment folks due to his past history; his attempts to finesse his positions fell on deaf ears and didn’t move that needle at all. One of the most militant groups here in NH, I think, made up a big part of his loss percentage.
- And both of them, Brown especially with his absolutely pandering in on-bended-knee-running to Shaheen’s Left on being “I’m more Pro-Choice than her!!!!” told another large group of normally Conservative Republicans “I don’t need you at ALL” – that would be the large Pro-Life voters to whom this issue IS their top issue if not their SINGLE issue when voting. In each of these candidates, not maintaining a Consistency with their base cost them. It should show that trying to replace that base with another, and being very untransparent about it, failed to create a Trust and you both lost votes.
Sidenote: And those in the NH GOP Elite that wish social conservatives would just go away and are SO embarrassed that many of us BELIVE that the Social Issues DO COUNT and DO MATTER, well guess what – we did what you said and went away. Happy now? Ready to re-calibrate or are you going to be as stiff-necked on this as what Obama was in his presser yesterday?
- And in general, having the solidified perception that both were recruited (er, that story about Brown making 8 demands before agreeing to run for Senate???) by the Elite and rejecting the home grown talent, well there is a sense of betrayal that the base still has towards Papa Smurf and the Five Families that also laid into this.
- And my prediction, so pooh-poohed over and over again, that THIS US Senate race would turn out to be irrelevant to the Republicans retaking control of the US Senate easily was proven to be true.
Now, onto the other races:
- I was wrong about the Executive Council – pleasantly surprised, actually! It means that Hassan really is going to re-live what Lynch went through (albeit with slightly looser handcuffs, but on the bright side, she already has the drapes she wanted). I have Trust in Joe Kenney, Dave Wheeler, and Chris Sununu to make sure “to read the contracts” (unlike what was done with the Medicaid Expansion contract under the previous regime). Go and make her life miserable!
- I was wrong numerically about the NH Senate – I thought that the Dems would take the majority by a seat. Now, that’s not to say that it isn’t still ideologically in their hands – after all, the Rogue Republicans walked the Democrat line on Obamacare’s Medicaid Expansion, the gas tax, and further silencing of political speech. Then rewarded their “scapegoat” Nancy Stiles with 10s of thousands of dollars in her primary and general race. Actions speak for themselves. However, with the election of Gary Daniels and Kevin Avard might be enough to better establish a much more conservative counterweight and vote better in line with NH GOP Principles.
In the above races, I was pessimistic because of Catalist – the generalized word for the series of databases used by the Democrat Big Data machine that consumed 100s of millions of dollars to just put a human face or voice in front of another one – the turnout machine that put Obama into the WH house in 2008 and 2012. I expected, after last cycle’s 100,000 same day registrations in all the wrong areas was going to be repeated – I placed more emphasis on bad results for Republicans than what the actual results showed.
Sidenote: am starting to hear about the uplift given by some of the newer Republican tech – not sure if that was the total answer to the Dems but seemed fairly effective in a number of areas and in ways that is different than how the Dems work theirs. One Dem techie put it this way: ““Their electorate doesn’t look like ours, so we don’t recognize or respect what they’re doing.”“
Initially I thought that the Dems would hold the NH House with Catalist a big part of it as a result of its help upticket – then a while ago I switched that. But still, pleasantly surprised. As I said before, Belknap County voters threw out ALL of the Dems. Not the NH GOP (and certainly not the ‘Grok) – THE VOTERS.
Indeed, it was the VOTERS that rejected the Democrat message of Bigger Government is Better and it is Better When We Make the Decisions For YOU! They ditched that holier than thou Progressive mantra of leading the rest of you to their Utopia.
And they did it nationally as well – reinforcement for the US House by having the GOP take the US Senate. Shaheen is now neutered. Kuster is now neutered. I hope that Fran Guinta remembers promises and makes them happen. In what way?
The Republican voters repeated what they did in 2010 and 2012 – voted in Republicans in with one mission: Stop Obama and his Democrat minions. It is NOT your place to compromise or work across the aisle. We sent you to STOP the Democrats from implementing their agenda. Instead, we sent you to implement OUR Agenda – and that doesn’t include ANYTHING that the Democrats are for. Period. Stop the increase in DC and send the power back to the States and, ultimately, back into the Peoples’ hands. Me, you – us as individuals. WE should be making those important decisions for ourselves instead of others usurping that.