As always, he's only got questions and we've got answers! - Granite Grok

As always, he’s only got questions and we’ve got answers!

New WMUR logoDunno if I’m right, but I’m, as always, willing to play along.  And, I bet a better than .500 average to boot.  So Political Scoop’s questions (emphasis mine):

When will it start to bother the major players in Washington that Scott Brown is down double digits in two polls in a row?

I would think it’s already started.  Once is a warning flag, twice is panic button when there’s onl 58 days left until the Primary and the Old Bull in the race (e.g., former Senator Bob Smith) is horns down and charging into the margin of error.  It is now mid summer and the “almost activists” are starting to nose around politics.  Given that it will be the most conservative voters turning out, unlike the Ayotte / Ovide race where Ovide just barely ran out of track in the 2010 Senatorial race, Brown ‘s tires may already be rubbing and making smoke (appropriate for NASCAR weekend) – and it may be that a pit stop won’t get the job done.

Objectively speaking, where should the anti-Brown Republican vote go?

Based on those two polls (even as I have some problems with their wider than expected fluctuations), it looks like many have made their decision – Bob Smith. Objectively (the data) vs Subjectively (emotion), Rubens is last man running.  I think a lot of folks are looking for candidates that they don’t have to worry about when it comes to a vote – for instance, erstwhile Republican Progressive Charlie Brown.  Heck, I never knew how he’d vote on the issues that I cared about, Frank Guinta disappointed on the Biggest of all (spending), and with Kelly Ayotte going rogue with the Maverick, especially on Amnesty, I want a candidate that I can trust (yeah, tell me about it) and not one that swings in the political breeze / storm / tornadoes.

What is going to stop Bob Burns from pulling off another Republican nomination for the Executive Council?

I could be real happy with that and hope it does!  After all, GraniteGrok did endorse him in the last go round.

How much time did Walt Havenstein’s campaign spend trying to get the “teabagger” video removed from YouTube?

A sure bet a whole lot more time than they wanted.  Doesn’t really matter – we know where there are others.  One goes dead, we got anudder one ready in the batter’s circle.  Here’s something else: It was clear from Wednesday’s Belknap County Meeting that the Establishment wing of the Party is all in.  When he refused to apologize, every person that I would tag as being in that wing clapped in approval.  All the activists sat on their hands.

With the latter, he has both a PR and credibility gap – and since they are proportionally more expected to turn out in the Primary, this may turn out to have been a Bill Binnie moment.  Here’s a couple other notes on that race and that moment here, here, and here.  It may fit well: Same stuff, different names.

Mike Biundo: The Republican consultant grabs a quality client — Rand Paul — and with it several months of retainers.

Was glad to see this happen and getting picked up by someone that matches with his philosophy (not exactly, but an exact match seldom happens).  Rand picked very well indeed for the ground game.

Andrew Hemingway: If he is losing to Hassan by the same amount as Havenstein right now, he is as good of an option as the establishment pick, right?

That’s one reason why GraniteGrok (and it was unanimous amongst all of the Groksters) has endorsed Andrew and it speaks to the above – we know his Principles and that he will stick with him.  Oh sure, like everyone, he’ll have a couple of screw-ups as Governor – no one comes out unscathed (and yes, we will “hunt” him just like everyone else).  It speaks to character as well, he has messed up in the past – and has apologized for it immediately; a true measure of a man.

So, the answer is yes – and isn’t he the kind of guy (young, smart, entrepreneurial) that the Establishment Republicans keep whining about getting involved here in NH?  And just as one appears, they go and recruit another Country Club kind of guy (or, at the least, a stolid U of Maryland guy that prefers to be with extraordinary people).  At least Andrew is cool with being with “the ordinary folks” – you know, that worked their tails off in handing the Republican Party 2010 all over the nation.

And now he calls us Teabaggers and all over the nation has fought against candidates the TEA Party / Conservatives wing has put up.  But, like all the talking heads and “elder statesmen” are calling for (and NH GOP Chair Jennifer Horn is demanding) unity   – ask yourself:

Why would I vote for someone that has insulted me?  And even if he didn’t “know”, why would I vote for someone that used the same slur that Democrats refuse to apologize for either?

Loyalty up first requires loyalty down.  So, as I have already said about Scott Brown I will now say the same about Walt Havenstein. If he were to apologize, I would reconsider.  He’s supposed to be on GrokTALK! on the 26th – let’s see what happens.

Walt Havenstein: This was another week with him on the defensive, this time over two old videos that emerged

Self-induced and self-perpetuating.  Who knows what is to come this week?  He is certainly getting a lesson that many other have run onto the rocks over – everything is on the Internet and will be there forever.  And people will look for stuff and it will come out.

Scott Brown: Not only is Shaheen’s lead over him growing, but his fundraising haul came across as less impressive when Shaheen’s haul was announced.

I think that the “I’m the only anti-Shaheen” badge is rapidly tarnishing.

>