Is Amazon trying to be the first to implement the retailing version of “The Minority Report” (emphasis mine, reformatted)?:
Amazon is watching you and shipping your next package…even if you didn’t order it. The Seattle, Washington retailer has just obtained a patent that they call “anticipatory shipping,” which targets customers based on their historical shopping trends.
This new software system Amazon hopes will reduce waiting time for customers to receive shopping items and “may dissuade customers from buying items from online merchants.” Although a customer hasn’t yet clicked on buy, Amazon is predicting that he/she will, based on previous orders, product searches, wish lists, shopping-cart contents, returns and the amount of time an Internet user’s cursor lingers over an item.
I think that line should read “from buying items from OTHER online merchants”. Certainly with advanced data mining, a lot of things can be put into a “possible” or “never” sold status in the aggregate – but there is always uncertainty in the individual case. Heck, they might be right in what I would want next – but is that sufficient even if they want to keep their lead in customer service (which as online sales increase, is increasingly being measured by delivery times – when we Americans want something, we want it RIGHT NOW!):
Amazon is working profusely to reduce delivery time for its products. In 2012, it started developing a plan to use drones to ship its products to customers. The “anticipatory shipping” plan relies on traditional logistic carriers, trucks and airplanes. The innovation involves shipping the products to hubs in close proximity to potential buyers, so that when the customer does place the order, the product will arrive within hours.
Amazon plans on capitalizing on its enormous data pool to out compete other online merchants. “It appears Amazon is taking advantage of their copious data,” said Sucharita Mulpuru, a Forrester Research analyst. “Based on all the things they know about their customers they could predict demand based on a variety of factors.”
Certainly, in the aggregate, this is a must. Much time, effort, and money is spent on software that can reliably forecast demand all up and down the value chain (from raw goods to sitting on retail shelves / online warehouse picking centers). If they overdue it?
Of course just hovering your mouse over an online item doesn’t mean that you are ready to fork over your credit card. Consequently, it could be costly for the online retail giant to transport all these products to various destinations, only to find the customer doesn’t want the item. Amazon may offer a discount on the unwanted delivery or even offer it as a gift. “Delivering the package to the given customer as a promotional gift may be used to build goodwill,” the patent said.
And it would be a gift; looking is not ordering. Not ordering means no legal responsibility on my part. If I remember right, current law states that I do not have to pay anything simply because a retailer sends me something. So, if Amazon wants to (and for full disclosure, I do order stuff from time to time from them), go ahead, send me a present. Christmas, every day!
