NH Guv race - what's the polling saying? - Granite Grok

NH Guv race – what’s the polling saying?

There’s LOTS of folks doing polls this year. I know this personally as every day I am getting between 2 and 8 calls / day wanting to know what I think (silly people, asking this ordinary schlub from Central New Hampsha, as if it mattered – heh!).  Of all the polls, I generally trust Rassmussen the most as they consistently ask likely voters versus just adults or registered voters.  Likely voters are the important ones, as they, of the three groups, will actually get into the car, drive to the polls, and actually cast their opinions to be tallied – remember, our voting percentages are nothing to raise a “Huzzah!” about in the vast majority of elections.  So getting those that do so give more accurate results.  Not only that, the others often end up with likely voters in their “election season ending” polls but use the other groups earlier on (it’s cheaper). Thus that is why you start seeing all of the polls start to congregate around the same numbers a week or two before the election – like we are doing now.

So, here in NH, what does Rasmussen say about the top races?

  • Romney over Obama: 50% to 48% (500 Likely Voters on 10/23, with 95% confidence level).  Margin: +/- 4.5%
  • Ovide over Maggie The Red: 48% to 46% (500 Likely Voters on 10/23, with 95% confident level).  Margin: 4.5%

Disclosure – I got called for this poll.  Also, I notice that Rasmussen also has 1% choosing another candidate.  Given the large number of Libertarians and rabid Ron Paul supporters in NH, I have consistently raised an eyebrow as to this low number (which has varies 1 – 5%). That said, it’s a toss up.  I have not “gotten out” this season like I have in the recent past (for a number of personal reason), so I’m not so sure that I have a handle on this one.  Certainly the Margin of Error for both says “Toss Up!”.  Certainly the absolute blizzard of political ads by both sides has injected name recognition into peoples minds (conscious or not) so I don’t think that this will be THE factor.

What is?  GOTV – Get Out The Vote.  When the “air war” and the “mail war” is over, and the speaking opportunities have had their PA systems shut down for good, the operative question will be: who will have the best ground game?  Which candidate has laid in the best plan to get folks to the polls?  And which ones have interlocked their’s with other, more down ticket, candidates?

I remain cautiously optimistic that both Ovide and Mitt will keep the Real Progressives (Socialists, really) out of office.  NH IS a battleground state – I cannot remember when the Presidential candidates have visited so often to a small state with just 4 Electoral votes – normally NH has been “put into the bag” by this time.  It is only one very real and obvious artifact of how up in the air this election will be here in NH

Go Ovide!

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