For a long time now, Pete DaTechGuy has been saying of the Democrats: ‘Ride right through them, they’re as demoralized as hell!‘, and Rush Limbaugh has been talking about biased polls oversampling Democrats. In addition, Rasmussen has been tracking the changes in voter registrations, and Dean Chambers over at QStar News has been using Rasmussen’s figures to un-skew some of the biased polls, with surprising results.
Real Clear Politics maintains an good honest average of the major polls, but what if the input data was seriously flawed? (Garbage In = Garbage Out) What if Romney and the GOP were doing MUCH better than the media are telling you?
This chart, by Dean Chambers in his recent article at examiner.com, shows at left, Rasmussen’s most recent voter registration percentages (37.6 R, 33.3 D, or R+4.3), and the effect of various skew factors from R+2 to D+4: You can see at a glance that Romney wins unless the poll samples are at warp factor 9, and like Emperor Obama’s new clothes, these techniques are becoming more and more transparent. “Ah cain’t push ‘er any farther, captain – ma credibility’s blown a’ready!”
These four charts, from the same article, compare four recent polls with Rasmussen’s party registration numbers so you can see just how far the numbers have been warped..
So how does a rolling average of the polls look if it is corrected to match Rasmussen’s party registration data? Quite encouraging, that’s how! This chart from the home page of unskewedpolls.com give you an idea of what the RCP average would look like if they used reliable sources:
Pete DaTechGuy did a tremendous analysis of Rasmunnen’s voter registration trends, going back several years, and got himself quoted on Rush Limbaugh’s show as a result – Hats off to Pete!
Looking at this Composite of Pete’s excellent tables, one is struck by the absence of a GOP registration advantage for Bush’s re-election in 2004 and how modest the registration advantage was for the massive Tea Party victories of 2010, especially compared to the registration advantages the Democrats had in 2006 and 2008. You can also see how we are running ahead of our 2004 and 2010 registration figures this year, which suggests a very good year for the GOP.
NOW, you get to the real heart of the matter – in order for Obama to win at all, never mind winning convincingly, the Dems need both voter registration and turnout to look like they did in 2008 – you can see the registration numbers here, and primary turnout shows an enthusiasm gap of about 10% in favor of the GOP. Unless the Democrat media severely suppress our vote, they haven’t a prayer, and thus, ladies and gentlemen, I submit to you motive and opportunity to commit the crime – and it ISN’T WORKING! (And you won’t let their tricks work, will you?)
This topic of blatant poll falsification is starting to get real traction at the upper echelons of the alternative media. Over at TownHall.com, Hugh Hewitt, he of the famous saying ‘If it isn’t close, they can’t cheat!’, has invented a new polling firm which perfectly exemplifies the book-cooking the LameStream Media has indulged in: “Madoff, Marist, Quinnipiac and Ponzi“! Here’s a couple of snippets from Hewitt’s article:
Michael Barone notes that percentage turnout by party in a presidential year hasn’t been much greater for the president’s party than it was in the preceding off-year, which makes samples outstripping even the 2008 model of Democratic participation “inherently suspicious.”.
Jay Cost notes that Romney is winning the independent vote in every poll, which also makes big Obama leads suspect.
Over the next few weeks, the junk polls will start tweaking their samples and dancing around that fact in order to come closer to reality. Too late. The sample controversy has penetrated into the public’s mind, and Quinnipiac and Marist are marked as either rubes or rogues unless the huge democratic turnout advantage materializes on November 6.
In the meantime, if you see a story on a poll that doesn’t tell you the partisan make-up of the sample, note to yourself that the reporter is missing the most interesting bit of data to most readers.
Just as Bernie Madoff used to hide the real story.
There WILL be more on this topic – I suspect that when the fat lady eventually sings, the Democrats will be squealing like stuck lawyers over the results of the REAL poll!