Obama owns it, now. Will he break it, later? - Granite Grok

Obama owns it, now. Will he break it, later?

From Iraq (NY Times):

BAGHDAD — Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki of Iraq threatened on Wednesday to abandon an American-backed power-sharing government created a year ago, throwing the country’s fragile democracy into further turmoil just days after the departure of American troops and potentially tarnishing what has been cast as a major foreign policy achievement for President Obama.

In a nearly 90-minute news conference broadcast on tape-delay, Mr. Maliki defied his rivals and pushed back on all fronts in Iraq’s deepening political crisis, threatening to release investigatory files that he claimed implicated his opponents in terrorism.

He also threatened the Kurds, a valuable ally with close ties to the Americans, warning that there would be “problems” if they protected Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, who fled to the semiautonomous Kurdish region in recent days to escape an arrest warrant on charges that he ran a death squad responsible for assassinations and bombings.

Why should Maliki continue with the “American-backed power-sharing government”?  Effectively, Obama has taken the troops out ahead of time and are now leaving the Iraqi field wide open for other-than-American influence – read that as Iran.  Obama can now be said to have created a political vacuum in the region (or to be kind, a partial at the least; you and I would not last long breathing it).  Sure, with 16,000 personnel stationed at our embassy there we’ll have a presence there but a civilian in a region that loves the strong horse and derides the weak one.  Obama has shut the door on the American influence by signaling weakness in an area that will exploit such a sign.

Yes, there is the problem of judicial protection of our troops (I gather it is akin to what some want the ICC to do with Bush and Cheney: war crimes) and those troops needed to be protected or leave.  But while Obama all but said “Mission Accomplished”, he has said “The war here is over” – and I am fearful that this will turn out to be another Viet Nam: talent, treasure, and lives gone for naught simple political expediency.  Wars don’t end just because one side says “the war is now over by my proclamation”; it ends when one side beats the ever dripping snot out of the other and the snot-dripper whines “Uncle”.

It is Obama’s decision (yes, I’m aware of the Bush  timetable, but Obama accepted and then pushed it), Obama’s actions and Obama’s watch.  If this blows up in his face, is he going to blame Bush yet again?  And what is his Plan B especially if it is Iran that causes the trouble and then capitalizes on it?  And foments more trouble for the US directly?

Now add to that the problems in Afghanistan and Obama can be faced with a month of 3am calls.  The question is what will he do?  Give up or go back in and double down?

Will all the blame be on Obama?  Politically, it might (his watch) or might not (the public mood).  But a good share of it belongs on Bush the Elder and Colin Powell’s shoulders for not following through at the end of Gulf 1 and failing to remove Sadaam and creating a treaty that never worked (mostly due to the Turkey Shoot destruction wreaked upon the remnants of Sadaam’s Army as they tried to haul tail out of Kuwait when it was clear they were there to fight a war they could not win save that in Sadaam’s mind.   If they had, there would have been no Gulf II and perhaps Afghanistan might have been different.

But that’s a lot of “if” and Obama has a lot of “now” and “near now” to deal with – but as a Blue Star Dad who had the Eldest Marine in Iraq and the Youngest Army – 101st Airborne in Afghanistan, I have more than a passing interest on what that “near future” might hold.  Yes, the Eldest has been home for a while, but the Youngest has not mustered out yet (nor has he made that decision yet to do so).  No military strategist am I, but I do know that if it comes to having replay either theater of operations, it will still be bad expensive the second time around even as the tactical lessons may still be fresh and free of tarnish.

Would Obama do the right thing, or choose the politically expedient acion.

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