Jul

17

2010

Latest Straw Poll results are in…

by Tom

The Rockingham County GOP "Meet the Candidates" Picnic and Straw Poll was held today in Brentwood, with some surprising, and not so surprising results…

The thing to consider is that this was a County GOP-sponsored event, which brings out the party-oriented community, not just the hardcore activists that we saw at the CNHT picnic.  I’m going to theorize that these results will better reflect what we could see in September’s primary vote (unless, of course, a majority of the voting tickets were not purchased by the candidates themselves, as some speculate).

(In case you missed it, the ‘Grok reported on the most recent straw poll, at the CNHT Picnic on July 10th…)

Senate – Bender (25%) Lamontagne (24%) Ayotte (24%) Binnie (23%)

Jim Bender came out on top with a slim one-point victory over both Kelly Ayotte and Ovide Lamontagne.  While only winning by one point, I don’t think Bender has topped a straw poll yet.  I’m guessing you can credit his latest commercial for this pull-ahead.  Bill Binnie, and his big pile of money, came in one point behind that, at the bottom, in his home-county.  Essentially, the Senate contest is anyone’s race, proving, at least for now, that money can’t buy you love.

Other polls are showing, and confirming, that this is shaping up to be a 4-way race.

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Congress D1 – Guinta (36%) Mahoney (27%) Ashooh (19%) 

In this case, Mahoney (former NH RNC Committee member) comes in 2nd to Guinta.  In the CNHT poll, Ashooh took Silver to Frank’s Gold.  Either way, Frank beats his nearest challenger by at least 10%.

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Congress D2 – Horn (43%) Bass (32%) Giuda (23%)

As you would expect, Charlie does much better at a GOP event than his virtual CNHT "no-show" of 11%.  Bob Giuda, in the real world, fares a little worse than his 30% CNHT showing.  Like Frank, Jennifer is leading her next challenger by at least 10% in both straw polls.

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Governor – Stephen (52%) Kimball’s (41%)

Stephen beats Kimball by a slightly wider margin here (+3%) than at the CNHT event.  This could end up being a neck-and-neck race as well.

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Although there are a number of other Republican candidates in each of these races, none were mentioned in the report, other than those above.

According to the report, 900 votes were cast.

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by Tom V

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  • Mattruns

    I think your comments about the ticket purchases “(unless, of course, a majority of the voting tickets were not purchased by the candidates themselves, as some speculate)” are way overly kind.
    When you start talking about 1 percentage point here or there between these Senate candidates, and it is CLEAR that a majority of the tickets were purchased by some of the campaigns, ” NHPoliticalReport.com reported 500 of the 900 tickets bought for the Rockingham County Republican Committee’s picnic were purchased by the U.S. Senate campaigns.” then I for one have a real hard time even discussing the results. Garbage in – garbage out.
    (http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Senate+race+gets+feisty+over+straw+poll&articleId=bd4529ee-8843-4045-b78b-8eda50e78e40)
    Does it mean that if I was a candidate and I bought the most tickets and gave away the most tickets to people to come and vote and got 25% of the votes then that is OK with everyone? Why does our GOP Party think that is OK? It’s not OK……its buying votes, its distorting outcomes, its giving FALSE polling information to everyone to opine on…..including you! What good is a grass roots straw poll that has been bought and paid for. The county GOP should be ashamed for putting on this sham of a vote. Call it what it is!
    Doesn’t our democracy hinge on one person one vote? Did 900 people show up and vote today to cast 900 votes? What is the New Hampshire GOP now, just as good or as bad as third world elections? As a Republican I am offended by today’s event. WE can and MUST do better than this or all we will do is elect Democrats.

  • Lastclimb

    First, let’s make sure everyone understands, the vote was one person, one vote regardless of how they paid for their ticket.
    The straw poll was run by the great ladies of the Seacoast Federation of Republican, as a favor to the Rockingham County Republican Committee. Each person was given a tamperproof red wristband, which was stamped as they cast their ballots for the vote.
    Second, let’s make sure everyone understands the numbers. More than 1,200 people attended the picnic over the course of the day, through the generosity of a few campaigns many more tickets were sold for the event.
    During the voting, only 900 people chose to cast votes, meaning at least 300 didn’t even vote at all. Any claim that someone voted more than once or stuffed the ballot box is just false. Equally false is any claim that any committee intended to, or attempted to, “buy the election.” The facts and the numbers simply disprove any such accusation.
    Lastly, at the end of the day, it did not matter if a campaign bought one ticket or 100 tickets; they still had to turnout their base to actually vote. Simply, straw polls are a gauge of organizational and financial strength at one moment in time.
    Today’s vote just affirmed the results of “mainstream pollsters” that we have four very strong US Senate candidates, all who are all in a statistical dead heat for the nomination. And all who beat the presumptive Democrat nominee head-to-head.
    What more could we ask for as a party.
    (Special Note: James Pindell’s blog was just plain wrong; the facts disprove his accusations.
    Now it might be just me, but I do not recall Pindell ever taking the Dem’s to task for holding straw polls or in their extorting money from campaigns with “pay-to-play” policy. At the Rockingham County Picnic it did not matter if you bought one or 100, every candidate got the chance to speak at the event.)

  • Mattruns

    I read the Union Leader account of the event. You do the math. Bender admits to buying 100 tickets. Ayotte says she only bought tickets for her staff……so let’s assume for a minute that is true and is less than 25. Lamontagne says he wouldn’t play ball and buy tickets, which presumes he had to buy a few for the staff that were there……so call that 5-10. However the GOP committee confirmed that 500 were sold to the Senate campaigns ………which only leaves us with two conclusions 1) Binnie must have purchased well over 350 tickets 2) Someone in a position to know is out and out lying: “Gregory Carson, an event spokesman, said no one candidate bought hundreds of tickets. He said a $1,000 donation for 100 tickets is not out of line for any of the larger campaigns.” Either Carson is lying or one of the campaigns is lying about how many tickets they bought. Also, why wouldn’t Ayotte say how many tickets they purchased…..sounds like a simple question that deserved a simple answer.
    This simply looks like a lot of CYA. Some campaigns bought a whole bunch of tickets so their supporters or would be supporters could vote for them……why else would you buy them? The organizers have egg on their greedy little faces for letting it all go down…..and want to pass it off with hollow explanations. There are no GOOD excuses for either of them. If the campaigns with a lot of cash in their pocket wanted to “donate” money to support the Rockingham county GOP, all they had to do was write a check…….not buy hundreds of tickets. Let’s just call it what it is….BAD politics. We can do better!
    Can someone assure me that if you had more than one ticket in your pocket you couldn’t just tear off your wrist band after voting and go back later with another ticket and vote again…..and again….and agin. I don’t think so. Any vote anywhere that is not simple and transparent is not a true measure of the voters for whatever purpose they were voting. Do you think a union organizing vote would be conducted this way? Let’s be sure there is some measure of truth in whatever we do as a party.

  • James B. Parker

    The US Senate race has me really perplexed. ALL 4 candidates claim they will support ALL of the 9/12 issues, but I really can’t see that as sincere. The issue that really goes against the grain of the one-party establishment is reining in the “Federal Reserve”. All of them say they are for Audit the Fed, but who will really DO it? And then follow up? This past year we saw a vast majority of representatives, over 330, co-sponsor the bill, but then most defected or voted a watered-down version a la Bernie Sanders. When any of these Republicans are asked directly, they like the “Federal Reserve” just fine. The American people have had it with the Republicans. 2006 and 2008 proved that. They have to fundamentally change to survive.
    And balancing the budget: Something has to get cut bigtime. Somebody’s ox is getting gored. But no one will commit. The whole bloated Washington establishment needs 40%-50% pink slips, whole cabinet level departments have to go. 17 Intelligence services is why we have no accountability and no actionable, timely intelligence. Wars at home and abroad need to be sharply cut.

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