GraniteGrok

UPDATE: I have been corrected on the money numbers.  Jennifer Horn raised $61,000 and Bob Guinda raised $60,000.

...given the latest polling data that I just saw on the 6pm WMUR news.  Their latest WMUR Granite State poll just came out and it is looking as bad for the Democrats running for Federal office as it has for the Republicans did the last two election cycles.  Buckles the Clown (AKA, Ray Buckley, NH Democrat Chair) is thinking "crap" (or, very much stronger language).

First, the real bad news: for a person who is a "semi-incumbent" (having been a Congressman for two terms", Paul Hodes is in REAL trouble against the Republicans (as this chart shows):

I guess that's why the rumors of Gov "Do Nuttin'" Lynch are flying around that he's going to ditch another Gov run and shove Hodes out of the way for that Senate slot - let the bloodletting begin!  While the fact that Ayotte definitely leads Hodes (and her having been in the news a lot lately), it shows that Ovide, Jim, and Bill (Lamontagne, Bender, and Binnie) are competitive.  Sure, Ovide is fairly well known among Republicans having had a history a while ago.  However, to folks like me (a relative newcomer to the political world), he was a blank slate at the very beginning of this process and I'm betting the same is true of the general public.  Bender and Binnie ARE newcomers to the scene - and I think that their ads that are just starting to go up on TV are starting to have an effect (who says money isn't helpful, and those two have lots to use).

The fact that Hodes BARELY beats these last three has got to have the Maalox folks thinking of sky rocketing sales here in NH.

And as they say in the informercial world - "Wait, there's more!"   Indeed! 

When someone who JUST entered the race within the last few days, Rich Ashooh, beats Carol Shea-Porter in the polls, it is a freaking disaster (for the Dems, anyways)!   And it is a delight to see that Bob Bestani (full disclosure - he posts here on GraniteGrok) is leading her (but within the margin of error of the poll which is 4.7%).

And CD-2 is not going to give Buckles and Mike Brunelle (NH Dem. Exec. Dir) any relief either.  With no coattails from Obama (er, start thinking a ball and chain FAR worse than George Bush!) and the base back to normal (instead of an Obama-frenzy), at this point in time, it's looking like flipping time as in only one case is a Democrat leading:

Now, compare that to the campaign funds raised, and it is not a pretty sight either:

I'm betting that Binnie and Bender can match Hodes buck for buck, and then some.  Ovide, having done much more on the non-profit activity side of the ledger, has already stated that he would not win the money race - that said, he is in the process of gathering a lot of high-powered Conservative endorsements that may well stand him in good stead (as well as attracting in and out of state TEA Party / Liberty & Freedom group attention).

The only down side for the Republicans is on the Congressional level - yes, CSP has much more $ in the bank, but certainly not the amounts that a two-term incumbent should have - and will probably have to spend lots to combat all the negative old AND new media press she has garnered via her foot-in-mouth gaffes (think Joe Biden but without the personality or smile) and STILL hope for magic pixie dust to fall on her from on high...

Sadly, it is two Repubs (since DeJoie didn't factor into the poll) that I would tout come up in last place in the money proxy poll.  However, still comparing their stash vs the opposition and their poll numbers, there's still a ray of sunshine that the Obama anti-coattails may still work...

Ah yes, it will be "interesting"....