Houston Fergus, we have a problem. Actually, I don’t, but given how you have described and maligned the TEA Party movement as "the Fringe" to be ignored and ridiculed, you might decide to just "think" about an exploratory run. And then leave it at that. But maybe, you’ll at least have a new monniker!
Why? Rassmussen will be delighted to give Fergus a clue (emphasis mine):
Running under the Tea Party brand may be better in congressional races than being a Republican.
In a three-way Generic Ballot test, the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Democrats attracting 36% of the vote. The Tea Party candidate picks up 23%, and Republicans finish third at 18%. Another 22% are undecided.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, the Tea Party comes out on top. Thirty-three percent (33%) prefer the Tea Party candidate, and 30% are undecided. Twenty-five percent (25%) would vote for a Democrat, and just 12% prefer the GOP.
Among Republican voters, 39% say they’d vote for the GOP candidate, but 33% favor the Tea Party option.
For this survey, the respondents were asked to assume that the Tea Party movement organized as a new political party. In practical terms, it is unlikely that a true third-party option would perform as well as the polling data indicates. The rules of the election process—written by Republicans and Democrats–provide substantial advantages for the two established major parties. The more conventional route in the United States is for a potential third-party force to overtake one of the existing parties.
Which is what many local TEA Party folks are thinking of doing – all over the nation. So Fergus, those independent voters you so dearly coveted? Please remember one thing:
GraniteGrok is co-founding member of the NH TEA Party Coalition. While I speak only for the ‘Grok in this post, Fergus, you have (by that phrase: "the Fringe") made your preference known.
There have been no small number of Republican "strategists" that have opined on how GOP candidates can "co-op" the TEA Party movement. In many most vast majority of cases, I would counsel most candidates not to even think about it. Many of the local TEA Party group, while consisting of many who may well be registered Republicans, are not too hep to the idea of someone swooping in and claiming the title "TEA Party approved" – most TEA Party folks will turn on that candidate in a heart beat.
The standard Generic Congressional Ballot shows Republicans holding a modest lead over Democrats. It appears that the policies of the Obama administration and the Democratic Congress are currently enough to unite both those who prefer Republicans and those who prefer the Tea Party route.
This pretty much shows why the Democrat leaders are attacking the TEA Party folks like NH Democrat Executive Director Mike Brunelle has done (here and here) – they KNOW, and are scared witless, by those that they are trying to smear as "the Fringe" may well hold the key to their demise. Just like Fergus!
This is part of the proof of "why?" And given the popularity of Sarah Palin with this group and the outright rock star status she now has with other "regular folk" as well as her growing political influence on the national scene (even as many wrote her off as "politically dead"), the Democrats are starting to have a cow. And so are Republicans who look down their nose at her (and those of us who see her as just a regular kind of person with no storied lineage or academic credentials but a good sense of timing based on conservative principles that are unshakeable bolster by what many politicians claim – natural common sense and a wonderful sense of plain speaking.
Other factorids from Rasmussen:
- Only 55% of conservatives nationwide consider themselves Republicans.
- 73% of Republican voters believe their leaders in Washington are out of touch with the party base.
- Republican voters are paying a lot more attention to the Tea Party movement than anyone else.
- Forty-three percent (43%) of GOP voters are following news about the movement Very Closely.
- Another 30% are following it Somewhat Closely.
- Seventy percent (70%) of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement while only seven percent (7%) offer an unfavorable view.
Gee, Fergus, I guess you would be in that real small group, eh? Remember this next factoid:
…the Tea Party bests the GOP among both men and women and in all age groups except those over 65. The Tea Party candidates are the first choice among political conservatives. Among moderates, the Tea Party candidates are more popular than Republicans.
Fergus, study the numbers in a very studious manner. And remember this, too:
However, nearly half of all moderate voters prefer a Democrat.
There may well be your answer as you move more and more away from being a conservative – and really going after "the Fringe" to the Left of the Party.
Fergus "The Fringe" Cullen – I like it!
Now, are there candidates in NH that could be considered TEA Party types? I think so – in fact, I know so. Certainly, Jack Kimball who is currently running for the Republican nomination for NH Governor has come out of the TEA Party movement here in NH and certainly espouses many of the qualities of the TEA Party.
There are others in MY personal opinion – but this post has gone long and I have other stuff to touch upon tonight.
