Early polling - it's starting to matter!
UPDATE - No 2nd district reporting here. As I emailed to Nate (thanks for commenting!):
Hi Nate!
We live in the 1st, so that was the reason I did that.
I was also disappointed that only Clegg and Horn were mentioned against Hodes, so I didn't bother - I really didn't want to present a partial picture. I probably should go back and state that.
-Skip
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While it is true that the only poll that counts is when the ballot box is picked clean and the final tally is known. So, even if the poll you see know is not one that gives you results you like (as Doug noted here that some Dems might not be too happy with). In fact, it's the results from this poll by UNH. For the really wonky types, take a look see (that would be moi!)
And I have to eat crow. Remember what I blogged a while ago? Well, Senator Sununu has obviously been a ball of fire! First, it looks like any lead Shaheen had over Sununu has evaporated...
...and it probably is going to get worse if these Favorable / Unfavorables are to be believed - with one going the wrong way (Shaheen's)...
Then the more crowded race here in the First Congressional District between Carol Shea-Porter, Jeb Bradley, and John Stephen. Methinks, with the above and this, that the Dems picture from 2006 has some cracks in it (gee, like the cracks Hillary was talking about for her campaign?)!
So, I think these two charts were eye opening: Jeb Bradley, then CSP, and then John Stephen.
First, it looks like CSP is going to take a thumping by Jeb by 6%
And then John Stephen gets thumped in a head to head by CSP by 6%
Favorables vs Unfavorables? Again, I was quite surprised - Jeb's leading the pack! Sure, the unfavs are up (I would imagine due to the uptick in aggressive attacks by John Stephen), but the Favorables are up at a far faster pace.
CSP comes in second....and like Shaheen, her numbers are going in the wrong direction. One has to wonder, too, given that she's been so screened by her staffers - is the silence starting to show on the issues? Or is the fact that the Democrat controlled Congress's 9% favorable rating is rubbing off on her (given her slavish voting with her Democrat Leadership)?
Heh? 2006 in reverse?
And I am really blown away with the low numbers for John Stephen! While his Fav is better than the Unfav, man, it's not budging. Less than 20% have a favorable rating?
Let's see what happens in another month....
Comments
Posted by: Nate | July 24, 2008 2:18 PM