Thank God for the Bomb (Allah willing...). Should we attack Iran?
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We all hear talk about a need to do something about Iran. Many people, myself included, believe we've been at war with them since 1979, only our side doesn't fight. Presently, the discussion of dealing with Iran and its threats and nuclear ambitions is something that is getting a fair amount of play in the presidential campaign-- or at least on the surface. Many candidates suggest-- and I agree with them-- that Iran MUST be "dealt" with. But really, what does that mean? What are our options and what is the realistic outcome? As part of an excellent online symposium at FrontPageMag, Lt. General Tom McInerney lays forth the the problem and offers the plan that I believe will ultimately have to get carried out:
On the 26th of Oct 2005, President Ahmadinejad said "God willing, soon there will be a world without the Americans and the Zionists”. Several months later his favorite Imam said that Iran was authorized to use nuclear weapons against its enemies even though they don’t have them (we think)..Now it is very clear to me that this is an entirely different threat than we have ever faced before and must act accordingly. His belief that the 12th Imam will come out of the well in Quom will encourage him to aid proxies to plant nuclear weapons in US and European cities once he has them. Old fashion deterrence does not work with terrorists.
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Today with Western economic and covert assistance, the Iranian people can remove the current leadership and take their country back. It won’t be nice but they will be out of the WMD business like Iraq is today. If we continue to let Russia and China be enablers, we will have to kick off the covert action by a very short (48 hours) massive (2500 aim points) air campaign aimed at their nuclear facilities, Air Defense, Navy, Air Force, Shahab 3s and Command and Control. The Iranian people would be told that the military was the target and not the people who we would assist in helping them take their country back. We must have a massive Information Operations campaign to support this action. Now I can lay out the details of this air campaign later but suffice it to say that the IAF recently conducted a very successful air strike in Syria without Stealth aircraft and the numbers we possess. I would rather not do it but it may be our last ditch maneuver.
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I am not worried about the Iranian retaliation because their leadership and military will be in a survival mode with chaos around them. Just as the Arab Street did not rise up when we did OEF and OIF, they will not during this action because it will be dominated by the Iranian people’s desires for freedom. Tyrants understand when we go for the juggler. If Syria and Hezbollah carry out offensive operations they will be crushed even though there may be a lot of causalities on both sides like TET. This fight is a better solution than nuclear weapons in our cities. We are either in denial or hope nothing will happen and neither is a strategy. This is an existential threat and appeasement like WWII will only get us 200 million killed versus the 60 million in WWII.
It's pretty scary stuff. One of the other participants in the symposium is Michael Ledeen, one of my favorite authors and scholars on global realpolitic. It's a rather lengthy read, but well worth your time. The complexities and dangers involved with "dealing" with Iran must be considered beyond a ten-second, tough-guy sound bite...
Comments
Posted by: sr | September 11, 2008 9:14 AM