Underdog? Maybe not for long
Living here in NH, we basically have one over-the-air station that can be seen all over the state (hee-hee; without cable, I couldn't see it at all!). Anywho, look what's being reported at WMUR as far as the Repub Prez race is concerned:
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- The Republican race for president has tightened up with three candidates now toward the top in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.
The latest WMUR/CNN New Hampshire Primary Poll shows that among likely Republican voters, Mitt Romney has dropped to 23 percent support, down from 33 percent in July. Rudy Giuliani is right behind at 22 percent, up from 18 percent.
Sen. John McCain was third at 17 percent, surging up from 12 percent in July. That represents a rebound for the early leader in the race, and with a margin of error of 5.4 percent, McCain has pulled back to striking distance.
The poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which interviewed 324 likely Republican primary voters.
I like things more simple - how's this table instead of all that verbiage:
Candidate Now Was Change
Mitt 23 33 -10
Rudy 22 18 +4
McCain 17 12 +5
The surprising news is McCain's uptick.
Now, before you all want us to fall on our swords keyboards for being biased, remember - we've not declared for anyone. We admit that we have spent a lot of time at the 'Grok covering Rudy and McCain than others. The reason is simple - they have come here locally the most and not during working hours. And (to be frank), McCain asked us on his bus too!
That said, we have some kind of problem with everyone in the race. But I was very surprised that McCain seems to be coming back from the dead - at least as far as polling results is concerned. He turned off a LOT of folks during the immigration bill and the polls showed that in the shellacking he took. That said, his No Surrender Tour and his new emphasis on defeating the Islamofascists (The 'Grok's Number One Issue) appears to be resonating with NH voters. As I have said before, he OWNS this topic and this issue. He finally has returned to his roots and it seems to be paying off for him.
So - what's with Mitt?
I know that there is quite a bit of time left in the primary race here in NH (umm, maybe not if other states keep jockeying for position if this was the Kentucky Derby), but a 10% drop ain't good news. This is especially true if one believes that Mitt is a "home boy" as he was the Governor next door in MA (ok, maybe it doesn't help) and has a home in Wolfeboro, NH.
I have no clue why so big of a drop...and Rudy and McCain have benefited from it.
Another tidbit from the reporting:
...66 percent are still trying to decide. Romney leads among conservatives and independents, Giuliani leads among moderates and McCain is pulling evenly from all three.
We pay a lot of attention to the race here in NH - a lot of us (including us Groksters) just don't declare all that early (heh - curmudgeonly Yankees!) to strangers.
