Iowa Straw Poll. Buying a win, but will the investment pay off?
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.............. Mitt Romney in Laconia, NH (GG file photo) come to my BBQ...
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Said Mitt Romney following his Iowa Straw Poll victory:
Today, the people of Iowa took the first step towards bringing change to Washington. This important victory sends a signal to grassroots Republican activists across the country that we are working hard to earn their support...
And spending a lot too!
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I won't belabor the point that the Iowa straw poll generally goes to the candidate that spends the most money and runs the best "ground game" needed to mobilize enough supporters to carry the day. This is not meant to completely pooh-pooh that accomplishment, but I do wonder whether a win at this most famous meaningless exercise involving candidate loyalists and party faithful actually translates into a majority in the more universal primary and caucus votes. It very well could, I suppose, if it can be sustained on a more massive across-the-board scale. And, of course, whether at the end of it all, voters in the privacy of the booth have been swayed beyond simply showing up for a free picnic and willingly cast a vote for the man himself on the REAL day of reckoning. That is the question that remains to be seen with Mitt Romney. Let's consider the details...
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In a piece entitled Romney's Cash Beckons Iowans To Straw Poll, The Washington Post reported
One candidate, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, has assembled an unrivaled operation for the event: a statewide corps of 60 "super-volunteers," who have been paid between $500 and $1,000 per month to talk him up; a fleet of buses; more than $2 million in television ads in Iowa; a sleek direct-mail campaign; and a consultant who has been paid nearly $200,000 to direct Romney's straw poll production, which will include barbecue billed as the best in the state.
USA Today has some estimates on how much each vote ultimately ended up costing candidate Mitt:
Winner Mitt Romney has not said how much he spent. The reporting in this Washington Post article suggests at least $2 million and possibly more than twice that much. Assuming $2 million for 4,516 votes, that's $442.87 per vote. But it could top $1,000.
What do you get for all that cash? The campaign gives the following stats:
Total Number Of Votes: 4,516
Percentage Of Vote: 31.5%
Margin Of Victory: 13.4%
.Governor Romney's Efforts In Iowa Since January 3, 2007:.Number Of Iowa "Ask Mitt Anythings": 53
Number Of Trips: 17
Number Of Events: 310
Number Of Days In State: 43
Number Of Miles Traveled In State: 4,211.5
Number Of Miles Traveled In The Mitt Mobile In Iowa: 4,684
I recognize that Mitt Romney gobbled up a lot of the hardcore GOP stalwarts early in the game. I have seen this for myself here in the Granite State. In an independently-orientating state like ours where more and more people are less willing to get all that attached to the party apparatus, I'm not convinced that having a lengthy list of the usual cast of characters as supporters wins the day. The events I've attended by Rudy Giuliani and John McCain appear to attract more ordinary folks as compared to Mitt's, which featured many familiar Republican faces. Perhaps this will be what it takes to win the party primary here in NH. Are their numbers great enough? Or, will the less politically intuned voters outweigh their influence?
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Lastly, while someone might easily foot the bill for a BBQ in Iowa, does he really have the kind of dough needed to duplicate it nationwide? How much does a California cost? Or a Florida? Or NH, for that matter?
